Posts Tagged ‘Mutual Funds’

Mutual Funds And Their Risks

Friday, February 13th, 2009

Mutual funds investment is comparatively safer method of increasing your net worth. However these investments are not totally devoid of risks. These are the things you should take into account while deciding on a specific mutual fund for investment.

Performance

The first point you must consider is if the mutual fund you want to invest in is outperforming or underperforming the market. The stable and reliable mutual funds regularly outperform the market. Fluctuations in the net asset values (NAVs) of these mutual funds are regularly better than the market. E.g. if the stock index rises, the NAV of all the good and safe mutual funds will go up to the extent of the market movement or at times, can exceed the market movement. Also when the market goes down, the NAV of most good and safe mutual funds will go down, but such reduction will be equal to or less than the market movement. But in case of risky mutual funds, the opposite holds true. When the market rises, the NAV of risky mutual funds can go up but may be below the market and can even decrease, even though there is a bull run in the market. Avoid these mutual funds that are performing below par, while taking an investment decision.

The other thing to check is if the mutual fund has excessive “churn and earn”. This implies you should find out if the excessive transactions by the mutual fund lead to heavier fees or costs to the investor. The biggest culprits are the mutual funds who carry out needless churn. Every buying or selling transaction of the mutual fund fetches its broker(s) a nice hefty commission. Hence the brokers support plenty of churn by bribing the mutual fund manager. Since direct bribery is crime, the bribes are induced indirectly like sponsoring a family trip overseas or offering the mutual fund manager a plush Wall Street office at an unbelievably low monthly rental. The only person who loses in this game is the investor, especially if the fine print says the investor is responsible for the brokers’ fees too.

Absence of clarity

Mutual Funds that have prospectus, annual reports or statements containing extra information that is written in a convoluted way making it difficult to understand and hence should be avoided. Absence of clarity in documents signifies the shortage of honesty in their dealings or absence of competency in managing funds. Both these reasons are plausible enough to make you shun them for investing. Risky and unsafe mutual funds have innumerable restrictions on the method and timing of selling or redemption of mutual fund shares. Mutual funds with very long lock-in periods or charging heavy exit load while redeeming should be treated cautiously and turn out to be unsafe and risky.

Be wary of scams

There are quite a large number of mutual funds that are total sham. Many reports have indicted fund mangers selling stocks at different prices than those told to the investors. E.g. the fund manager can sell stock at prices that existed at the close of previous day, while the investor is informed that the stocks were sold before the close of the day, when the prices were quite lower. This allows the fund manager to keep the difference with them and since there is a large amount of such transactions, a small price difference can cause heavy gains for the manger. The only loser here is the investor who is shortchanged by the mutual fund manager.

Market Timing and Mutual Funds

Friday, February 13th, 2009

To get better rate of return, investors can time the market by investing in bonds, stocks, or mutual funds that means investing as stock markets rise and selling before they go down.

A good investor can either time the market intelligently or go for a good investment, or use a blend of both for higher rate of return. But trying to time the market, just for higher returns carries higher risk. Investors proactively timing the market should accept that at times, unforeseen happens and they can suffer a loss or give up higher return.

It is impossible to time the market. The successful investment is based on two decisions that should be taken correctly: selling and buying. Any wrong decision in the short term means you stand to suffer a loss.

Besides investors should understand that:

Stock markets rise more frequently than they fall.

When stock markets go down, they fall quite rapidly. Hence short-term losses are quite harsher than short-term gains.

Majority of the stock market gains are earned in very short time. So if you skip 1-2 profitable days in the stock market, you tend to lose majority of the gains.

Very few investors can time the market properly. The results of a comprehensive study of institutional investors concluded that the median money manager increased the value slightly by choosing investments that exceed market indices. The best money managers increased the value over 2% each year because of good stock selection. But the median money manager forfeited value by timing the market. Hence investors should understand that market timing can increase value, but there are superior strategies to increase gains, reduce risk and succeed more often.

The reason timing the market is difficult is because of the problem of eliminating emotion from your investment decision. Emotional investors choose to overreact; they invest when the prices are at the peak and sell when prices fall down. Professional money managers do not carry emotions while investing, can increase the value by proper timing of their investments. However most of the higher rates of return can be obtained by security selection and other investment strategies. Investors looking for higher returns by market timing should opt for a good Tactical Asset Allocation fund. These funds try to increase value by altering the investment mix between cash, bonds, and stocks by adopting strict protocols and models , instead of emotional market timing.